AdiosUSA

Yes, it’s International Star Wars Day. Tomorrow is Cinco de Mayo. As a litmus test of whom you can trust in the Media, when you read about parades and fiestas celebrating Cinco de Mayo here in Mexico, when you hear that celebrations have been cancelled because of AH1N1, when ignorant reporters in the US press report that Cinco de Mayo is one of the most important days of the year in Mexico, you can turn the page, burn the paper, change the channel. Mexican Independence Day is September 16.

Cinco de Mayo is a celebration of the victory of the state of Puebla against the French. It is not a federal holiday and it’s celebrated in only a few places in the country. It’s about the equivalent of the Battle at Bunker Hill. All Americans learn about that infamous battle but who remembers the date? Outside of Boston, who commemorates that day?

That’s not to say that it’s not an important day for Mexican x-pats. Mostly by accident it’s become a day for Mexicans far from home to celebrate their culture and history.

I’m trying to balance news from the international press, the US hyperbole machine and the local media here in Mexico. I live just a few blocks from the headquarters and printing presses of nearly every newspaper in the country and with a visit to La Habana cafe just a few blocks away I can listen in on conversations between editors and reports and get the latest even before it shows up on Twitter.

So here’s what I have culled from the wildly disparate information I’ve been able to gather:

It’s not all hype but it’s way overblown. Watch CNN and you’ll lock your family in the backyard bomb shelter. I think people are frightened because the Mexico City government is taking the whole thing so seriously, which is a good thing but horrible for the economy. I wonder if a city in the US would be so bold. While the US media is beginning to point fingers at Mexico for mishandling the situation (can’t wait ’til Bill O’Reilly goes on an anti-Mexican tear over this), a representative of the World Health Organization says that Mexico has done a competent job in handling the crisis, not perfect, but competent.

In a good year in the US there are 35,000 deaths by flu, in a bad year 70,000. Consider that they mostly happen in the five months of flu season, do the math and the numbers of deaths here don’t seem so alarming. What the CDC and WHO are worried about is that it’s a new strain, a mix of swine, bird and human and that most of the deaths have been young, otherwise healthy people — and flu season should be about over. The virus is labeled H1N1, which reflects the receptors on the surface of the virus and the cell it attaches itself to. The epidemic of 1918 in which tens of millions died was also caused by an H1N1 strain.

From The LA Times:

As the World Health Organization raised its infectious disease alert level Wednesday and health officials confirmed the first death linked to swine flu inside U.S. borders, scientists studying the virus are coming to the consensus that this hybrid strain of influenza — at least in its current form — isn’t shaping up to be as fatal as the strains that caused some previous pandemics. In fact, the current outbreak of the H1N1 virus, which emerged in San Diego and southern Mexico late last month, may not even do as much damage as the run-of-the-mill flu outbreaks that occur each winter without much fanfare.

“Let’s not lose track of the fact that the normal seasonal influenza is a huge public health problem that kills tens of thousands of people in the U.S. alone and hundreds of thousands around the world,” said Dr. Christopher Olsen, a molecular virologist who studies swine flu at the University of Wisconsin School of Veterinary Medicine in Madison.

So it’s a concern for health officials but nothing to panic over — although it could become serious. Mexico City took drastic actions because of the population density. In one of the biggest cities in the world the flu could spread more rapidly than anywhere else. Schools, government offices, parks, museums, cinemas, etc, are closed until May 6. The next eight days are going to feel like a long string of Sundays. No complaints here!

And Tamiflu works, at least in the US. I’m not sure it’s been tried here. The strain in Mexico has killed people, yet in the US and Canada no one has died. That could either be that Mexicans seek medical attention much later than Americans or that the strain here is more insidious.

One thing that, as far as I can tell, has not been mentioned in the press is that the DF shut down a segment of the water system twice in one month. They had to do major repairs to the pipeline that brings water over the mountains and into the valley. Some people had to go without water (even for their toilets) for up to five days. That seems like a breeding ground for infection to me. When normally hygienic people have no source of water how do they clean their hands after using doorknobs, public telephones, and ATM machines?

I haven’t been seriously thinking of going back to the US but even if I were, I don’t have any options. An airplane is nothing but a tightly sealed incubator and I can imagine that any foreigner with a slight cough would try to fly home. Even when I’m healthy I come off plane flights with a cold. A bus wouldn’t be all that different — two days trapped in a small space with the same people… And where would I go. Where would I be safe in the US. Nowhere.

Over the weekend the streets were literally abandoned (check out the movie 28 Days). I can read online, but it’s hard to gauge the mood here because most people have self-quarantined. My only outside contact has been a friend visiting from San Francisco who I just put on a plane this morning.

Last night around 11PM we were in the Zocalo (the huge central square – think Red Square) At the center there is a 5 ft diameter pole that flies the national flag from 6AM to 6PM. Suddenly soldiers marched out of the national palace with what is said to be the largest flag in the world. There were no more than ten people to be seen. The young men went through some ceremonial maneuvers, their faces covered with surgical masks, then they slowly raised the flag. I asked one of them why at this late hour and he said it was “to remember those who have died in the epidemic”, he paused, then added “and for those that have yet to die”. It was a very emotional moment.

I’m not dispassionate but I’m not too concerned either. I’m predicting this to be the first wave of a pandemic that will hit harder next fall (as it did in 1918) — most likely in far poorer countries than Mexico. In my old age, having lost dozens of friends to AIDS, and after experiencing a brush with my own mortality, I really don’t suffer the deaths of others. In the past three weeks my grandfather died and a great friend in SF committed suicide. These things I take in stride. I do, however, empathize deeply with the suffering of the living.

I often wax with pride over Mexico City but my opinion of the country as a whole is quite different, similar to my love for SF and my disgust with the Bush admin. If it does turn out that the epidemic started at a pig farm in Veracruz and the government chose not to investigate for political reasons, I won’t be surprised but I will be very disappointed in my host country. The Guardian reports that the pig farm is owned by a US company that’s been accused of dumping pig feces into local rivers since the 70s. Looking down from 30,000 feet it’s hard not to believe in karma.

Update: It’s now seems possible that the virus originated in the US and a migrant worker brought it to Veracruz.